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Efficacy of China’s clean air actions to tackle PM2.5 pollution between 2013 and 2020

Abstract

Beginning in 2013, China launched two phases (2013–2017 and 2018–2020) of clean air actions that have led to substantial reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. However, improvement in PM2.5 pollution was notably slowing down during Phase II. Here we quantify the efficacy and drivers of PM2.5 improvement and evaluate the associated cost during 2013–2020 using an integrated framework that combines an emission inventory model, a chemical transport model and detailed cost information. We found that national population-weighted mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 19.8 μg m−3 and 10.9 μg m−3 in the two phases, and the contribution of clean air policies in Phase II (2.3 μg m−3 yr−1) was considerably lower than that of Phase I (4.5 μg m−3 yr−1), after excluding the impacts from meteorological condition changes and COVID-19 lockdowns. Enhanced structure transitions and targeted volatile organic compounds and NH3 reduction measures have successfully reduced emissions in Phase II, but measures focusing on the end-of-pipe control were less effective after 2017. From 2013 to 2020, PM2.5 abatement became increasingly challenging, with the average cost of reducing one unit of PM2.5 concentration in Phase II twice that of Phase I. Our results suggest there is a need for strengthened, well-balanced, emission control strategies for multi-pollutants.

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Fig. 1: Anthropogenic emissions in China from 2013 to 2020 and emission decreasing rates during the two phases.
Fig. 2: Reduction of PM2.5 concentrations from 2017 to 2020 in China and the three key regions.
Fig. 3: Drivers of PM2.5 variations from 2013 to 2020 over China.
Fig. 4: Contributions from the eight control measures to anthropogenic emission abatements, PM2.5 reductions and avoided premature deaths in phases I and II.
Fig. 5: The marginal abatement cost curve during the two phases of clean air actions.

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Data availability

The emission data developed by this work are publicly available from http://meicmodel.org.cn. The source data for figures presented in the main text and extended data are available at the figshare repository (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26411008 (ref. 58)). Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The code for the WRF model is available at https://github.com/NCAR/WRFV3/releases/tag/V3.9 and the code for the CMAQ model is available at https://github.com/USEPA/CMAQ/tree/5.2.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42222507 to G.G. and 41921005 to Q.Z.) and the New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE to Q.Z.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Contributions

G.G. and Q.Z. conceived the study. Yang Liu, J.C., L.Y., N.W., H.H., B.Z., D.T., G.G., K.H. and Q.Z. estimated China’s emissions. Yang Liu, D.T. and G.G. estimated the drivers of emission changes. Yuxi Liu, S.L. and J.C. conducted CMAQ simulations. Z.Y. contributed to the analysis of meteorological impacts. G.G. and Q.Z. interpreted the results. G.G. and Q.Z. wrote the paper, with input from all co-authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information

Nature Geoscience thanks Monica Crippa, Zbigniew Klimont, Jean-Francois Lamarque and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: Tom Richardson, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Summary of major control measures implemented during Phase I (2013–2017) and II (2018–2020).

The footnotes represent the title of each standard.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Anthropogenic emissions by sector in China during 2013–2020.

This is a supplement of Fig. 1, which presents the emission trends for PM10, BC, OC, and CO.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 3 Emission trends compared with satellite- and ground-based observations.

The 2013–2020 trends in SO2 (blue solid curve) and NOx (orange solid curve) emissions are compared with OMI SO2 (blue dashed curve) and NO2 (orange dashed curve) tropospheric columns for eastern China (29°N–41°N, 108°E–123°E), respectively. The 2013–2020 trends in ground-based observations of SO2 (blue dotted curve) and NO2 (orange dotted curve) are also presented. Data are normalized by their corresponding value in 2013.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 4 Drivers of emission changes of major air pollutants in China from 2013–2020.

Drivers of the national emission changes in (a) SO2, (b) NOx, (c) PM2.5, (d) NMVOC, (e) NH3, (f) PM10, (g) BC, (h) OC, and (i) CO. For each pollutant, the changes in emissions are decomposed into the drivers of activity rates and pollution controls by sector during Phases I and II. Numbers less than 0.01 Tg are not presented. Pow, Ind, Sol, Res, Tra and Agr represent power, industry, solvent use, residential, transportation and agriculture sector, respectively.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 5 Comparison of meteorologically driven PM2.5 concentrations between 2017 and 2020.

PM2.5 simulations using fixed emissions at 2020 and meteorological conditions for 2017 and 2020.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 6 Drivers of PM2.5 variations from 2017 to 2020 over the three key regions.

Estimations of drivers in (a) BTHSA, (b) YRD and (c) FWP. Values in parentheses show the 95% CI of our estimates.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 7 Meteorologically driven variations in PM2.5 concentrations.

Monthly percentage anomalies of simulated meteorologically driven PM2.5 variations (population-weighted) and occurrence frequency of air stagnation days (population-weighted) from their 2017–2020 means for individual months in (a) China, (b) BTHSA, (c) YRD and (d) FWP.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 8 Relative changes of major industrial and social-economic activities over China in each month between 2019 and 2020.

The row denotes different activities and the column represent each month.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 9 Reduced PM2.5 concentrations from strengthening industrial emission standards and promoting clean fuels in the residential sectors.

Spatial distributions of the reduced PM2.5 concentrations contributed by (a) strengthening industrial emission standards and (b) promoting clean fuels in the residential sectors. (c) Daily variations of national population-weighted mean PM2.5 reductions contributed by these two measures.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 10 Comparison of the changes between PM2.5 chemical composition concentrations and their precursor emissions during 2013–2020.

Comparison between (a) SO2 emissions and sulfate concentrations, (b) NOx emissions and nitrate concentrations, (c) NH3 emissions and ammonium concentrations, and (d) BC emissions and BC concentrations. PM2.5 chemical composition concentrations are national population-weighted mean excluding the impacts from changes in meteorological conditions. All data are percent changes relative to the value in 2013. The shades of the symbols’ colors denote the year.

Source data

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Methods, Figs. 1–15 and Tables 1–8.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Estimated anthropogenic emissions by sector in China from 2013–2020.

Source Data Fig. 2

PM2.5 concentrations 2017–2020 in China and the three key regions from CMAQ simulations, TAP dataset and ground observations.

Source Data Fig. 3

Estimated impacts from meteorological variations, anthropogenic emission control and COVID-19 lockdown in China for phases I and II.

Source Data Fig. 4

Estimated contributions of the eight control measures to emission reduction, PM2.5 abatement and avoided premature deaths.

Source Data Fig. 5

Estimated cost for the eight control measures.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 2

Estimated anthropogenic emissions by sector in China from 2013–2020.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 3

Satellite- and ground-based observations from 2013–2020.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 4

Estimated drivers of emission changes in major air pollutants in China from 2013–2020.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 5

Monthly PM2.5 simulations under E20M17 and BASE20 scenario.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 6

Estimated impacts from meteorological variations, anthropogenic emission control and COVID-19 lockdown in BTHSA, YRD and FWP in Phase II.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 7

Monthly percentage anomalies of simulated meteorologically driven PM2.5 variations and occurrence frequency of air stagnation days from their 2017–2020 means for individual months.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 8

Data of major industrial and social-economic activities over China in each month between 2019 and 2020.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 9

Simulated national population-weighted mean PM2.5 from strengthening industrial emission standards and promoting clean fuels in the residential sectors.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 10

Annual data for PM2.5 chemical composition concentrations and their precursor emissions during 2013–2020.

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Geng, G., Liu, Y., Liu, Y. et al. Efficacy of China’s clean air actions to tackle PM2.5 pollution between 2013 and 2020. Nat. Geosci. 17, 987–994 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01540-z

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