Fig. 4: Predictive accuracy results. | Nature Human Behaviour

Fig. 4: Predictive accuracy results.

From: Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints

Fig. 4

Average error-based and classification accuracy results and 95% confidence intervals for both individuals and groups of beginners and experienced participants. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals (mean ± s.e. ×1.96) drawn from linear models described in Table 3 refit with no reference class. Statistical test results: a, Round one (Beginners: estimated effect size \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.563, 95%CI = [0.531, 0.595]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.568, 95%CI = [0.535, 0.602]; Difference: t(603.01) = −0.274, P = 0.784, \({\hat{\upbeta}}={-}0.005\), 95%CI = [−0.043, 0.032], n = 606); Round two (Beginners: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.577, 95%CI = [0.536, 0.617]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.569, 95%CI = [0.527, 0.611]; Difference: t(591.00) = 0.431, P = 0.667, \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.008, 95%CI = [−0.028, 0.044], n = 594). b, Round one (Beginners: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.675, 95%CI = [0.618, 0.732]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.642, 95%CI = [0.594, 0.689]; Difference: t(336.00) = 0.886, P = 0.376, \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.033, 95%CI = [−0.041, 0.107], n = 338); Round two (Beginners: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.694, 95%CI = [0.614, 0.775]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}=0.613\), 95%CI = [0.538, 0.688]; Difference: t(326.93) = 2.131, P = 0.034, \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.081, 95%CI = [0.007, 0.156], n = 329). c, Round one (Beginners: \({\hat{\upbeta}}=0.535\) = 0.535, 95%CI = [0.482, 0.589]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.569, 95%CI = [0.515, 0.622]; Difference: t(114.00) = −1.145, P = 0.255, \({\hat{\upbeta}}={-}0.033\), 95%CI = [−0.09, 0.024], n = 116); Round two (Beginners: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.544, 95%CI = [0.493, 0.594]; Experienced: \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = 0.564, 95%CI = [0.513, 0.614]; Difference: t(113.00) = −0.580, P = 0.563, \({\hat{\upbeta}}\) = −0.020, 95%CI = [−0.087, 0.047], n = 116).

Back to article page