Extended Data Fig. 9: Flow diagram for the compartmental model coupling hospital and community dynamics.

Rectangles indicate infection states (S – susceptible to infection, E1 and E2 – infected but not yet infectious; I1 and I2 – infected and infectious; I’ severe disease). These compartments are duplicated for people in the community (subscript C, left panel), patients in hospital (subscript H, centre panel) and healthcare workers (subscript HCW, right panel). Arrows indicate permitted movements between these states and Greek letters correspond to parameters controlling the rate of these movements. The two exposed pre-infectious states (E1, E2) and the two infectious states (I1, I2), are used to represent Erlang-distributed latent and infectious periods.