Extended Data Fig. 8: Model validation.
From: SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing rates determine the sensitivity of genomic surveillance programs
We compared the mean number of reported cases (blue line, top panel) and deaths (red line, bottom panel) estimated by our simulations (10 simulations in total; see Supplementary Text) against the actual case and death counts (black lines) in Lusaka, Zambia during the second wave of infections between 25 December 2020 and 24 March 2021. Actual case and death counts were retrieved from the Zambia COVID-19 Dashboard (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/3b3a01c1d8444932ba075fb44b119b63). The blue and red shaded regions in each plot denotes the standard deviation of reported cases (top panel) and deaths (bottom panel) respectively.
