Extended Data Fig. 2: Calibration plots for incremental models in Generation Scotland.

Plots are shown for the full model (risk factors + composite protein epigenetic score + Cox PH lasso direct epigenetic score) (top-left) and the risk factors only model (bottom-left). The black line shows the loess calibration regression curve. The grey area shows 95% confidence intervals calculated from 2000 bootstrap samples. The ideal calibration line (observed = predicted) is shown in red. The histogram shows the distribution of predicted probabilities. The wider confidence intervals at higher predicted probabilities are due to the small number of predictions in those ranges. Most predictions are low in the probability range, emphasised in the zoomed-in plots (top-right and bottom-right).