This work investigates when the anthropogenic signal in regional sea-level rise will emerge from natural variability. Considering thermal expansion and changes in density and circulation, 50% of the global ocean will show an anthropogenic signal by the early-to-mid 2040s, whereas when all variables are considered, the anthropogenic signal will emerge in over 50% of the global ocean by 2020. This is substantially earlier than for surface air temperature and has little dependence on emissions scenarios.
- Kewei Lyu
- Xuebin Zhang
- Jianyu Hu