Ecological modelling articles from across Nature Portfolio

The adoption of natural climate solutions in crop-lands, such as cover crops, no tillage and residue retention, is widely assumed to provide both climate change mitigation and crop yield benefits. We find important spatially variable trade-offs between these outcomes and demonstrate that safeguarding crop yields will substantially lower the mitigation potential of natural climate solutions.

Estimating yield potential and yield gaps is crucial for global food security. However, many studies rely on statistical methods that lack theoretical and empirical justification for their use. We show that well-validated crop models, combined with local weather and soil data, provide a more accurate assessment of production potential.

A mathematical framework integrates the effect of disturbances on ecosystem services under climate change, and offers a vital tool to incorporate changing disturbance regimes into risk-sensitive decision making.

For almost 30 years, an insect fungal disease has repressed defoliation caused by the spongy moth in North American hardwood forests. The fungus needs cool, moist weather, but computer models project that the effects of climate change will prevent the fungus from killing spongy moths, which could lead to a resurgence of this devastating forest pest.