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Misconception of model transferability precludes estimates of seagrass community reorganization in a changing climate

Nature Plants volume 10, pages 1071–1074 (2024)Cite this article

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The Original Article was published on 19 June 2023

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arising from B. H. Daru and B. M. Rock Nature Plants https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-023-01445-6 (2023)

Daru and Rock1 used species distribution modelling (SDM) to project widespread reductions in seagrass species’ range sizes and increased endemism under end-of-century climate change. These shifts in alpha diversity were found to be similar across four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Global beta-diversity patterns would become more heterogeneous. From their models, Daru and Rock conclude that the redistribution of seagrasses would cause present-day marine protected areas to be ineffective, calling for the prioritization of new conservation areas. However, conceptual and methodological shortfalls in their implementation of SDM undermine accurate estimates of seagrass community reorganization in a changing climate.

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Fig. 1: Seagrass species range contraction and expansion projected using incorrect and standard SDM approaches.
Fig. 2: Geographic patterns of seagrass species richness projected using incorrect and standard SDM approaches.

Data availability

The layers used for SDM are openly available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23800401.v3 (ref. 16).

Code availability

The code used for SDM is openly available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23800401.v3 (ref. 16).

References

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Acknowledgements

This study received Portuguese national funds from FCT—Foundation for Science and Technology through project nos UIDB/04326/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04326/2020), UIDP/04326/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/04326/2020), LA/P/0101/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0101/2020) and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020); scholarship no. SFRH/BD/144878/2019; and the Individual Call to Scientific Employment Stimulus no. 2022.00861.CEECIND/CP1729/CT0003 (https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.00861.CEECIND/CP1729/CT0003). M.B.A. also acknowledges funding from the Spanish Special Action DGBBD-OAPN-FB-CSIC on ‘Natural Heritage, Biodiversity, Forestry, and Adaptation to Global Change’.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Jorge Assis, Ester A. Serrão, Eliza Fragkopoulou, Térence Legrand & Lidiane Gouvêa

  2. Faculty of Bioscience and Aquaculture, Nord Universitet, Bodø, Norway

    Jorge Assis

  3. Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Madrid, Spain

    Miguel B. Araújo

  4. Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED—Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE—Global Change and Sustainability Institute, University of Évora, Évora, Portugal

    Miguel B. Araújo

Authors
  1. Jorge Assis
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  2. Ester A. Serrão
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  3. Eliza Fragkopoulou
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  4. Térence Legrand
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  5. Lidiane Gouvêa
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  6. Miguel B. Araújo
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Contributions

J.A. and M.B.A. conceived the study. J.A., L.G., T.L. and E.F. produced the models. J.A., E.A.S. and M.B.A. wrote the paper. All authors reviewed the paper.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jorge Assis or Miguel B. Araújo.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Nature Plants thanks David Warton and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Assis, J., Serrão, E.A., Fragkopoulou, E. et al. Misconception of model transferability precludes estimates of seagrass community reorganization in a changing climate. Nat. Plants 10, 1071–1074 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01735-7

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