Abstract
Cropland expansion has been the most notable change in global land use since industrialization. However, assessments of radiative forcing from land-use change have generally neglected the effects of cropland expansion on secondary organic aerosol. Here we perform a series of cropland expansion sensitivity experiments with an Earth system model that incorporates advanced secondary organic aerosol processes, including organic new particle formation. Our model results show an ~ 10% decrease in biogenic secondary organic aerosol burden due to cropland expansion since industrialization. This has reduced radiation scattering and cloud droplet formation associated with secondary organic aerosol, leading to a 146 ± 112 mW m−2 decline in its radiative cooling forcing, equivalent to 8% of CO2-induced radiative warming forcing since industrialization. The radiative impact is mainly attributed to the transition from evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests to croplands. The radiative impacts are projected to increase by approximately 50% under future climate warming and reduced anthropogenic aerosol and precursor gas emissions, due to changes in biogenic emission intensity and background cloud condensation nuclei concentration. Policies addressing food security and climate change should account for the radiative impact of biogenic secondary organic aerosol from cropland expansion.
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Data availability
All model outputs used in this paper are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13777077 (ref. 49). Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The updated CESM/IMPACT model code are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13777077 (ref. 49).
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Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 42221001 and 42177082) and the National Key R&D Plan (grant no. 2022YFE0135000).
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J.Z., J.E.P. and P.F. designed the study and experiments. J.Z. performed model development and execution. J.Z., H.L., X.Z. and J.D. contributed to data analysis. J.Z. wrote the original manuscript. J.Z., C.H., C.-Q.L., Q.Z. and P.F. contributed to improve the manuscript.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Change in land cover fraction.
Changes in the percentage of cover of (a) evergreen broadleaf forests, (b) deciduous broadleaf forests, (c) evergreen needleleaf forests, (d) shrubs, and (e) grasslands to cropland and (f) evergreen broadleaf forests, (g) deciduous broadleaf forests, (h) evergreen needleleaf forests to grassland from pre-industrial times to the 21st century.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Changes in the direct radiative effect of SOA.
Changes in the direct radiative effect of SOA due to the vegetation cover change from (a) evergreen broadleaf forests, (b) deciduous broadleaf forests, (c) evergreen needleleaf forests, (d) shrubs, and (e) grasslands to cropland as well as due to the vegetation cover change in (f) high latitudes, (g) middle latitudes and (h) low latitudes in EX_BASE experiment.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Changes in the indirect radiative effect of SOA.
Changes in the indirect radiative effect of SOA due to the vegetation cover change from (a) evergreen broadleaf forests, (b) deciduous broadleaf forests, (c) evergreen needleleaf forests, (d) shrubs, and (e) grasslands to cropland as well as due to the vegetation cover change in (f) high latitudes, (g) middle latitudes and (h) low latitudes in EX_BASE experiment.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Changes in the total radiative effect of SOA.
Changes in the total radiative effect (DRE + IRE) of SOA due to the change in vegetation cover from pre-industrial times to the 21st century in EX_BASE experiment.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Figs. 1–9, Table 1 and Text 1.
Source data
Source Data Fig. 1
Data for the percentage of global vegetation cover type from 1850 to the twenty-first century.
Source Data Fig. 2
Data for the contribution of each vegetation cover change process to BVOC emissions, SOA and radiative effects.
Source Data Fig. 3
Data for changes in the radiative effect of SOA varied with latitudes.
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Zhu, J., Penner, J.E., Hong, C. et al. Cropland expansion reduces biogenic secondary organic aerosol and associated radiative cooling. Nat. Geosci. (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01718-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01718-z
