Extended Data Fig. 4: Association of turnover rate with taxonomic group and uncertainty of the association with temperature change and average temperature.

a) Turnover rate [proportion of species per year] for studies organized by taxonomic group. Dashed lines are the averages across studies within taxa, and the top horizontal lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals on the averages. The x- and y-axes have been square-root transformed to facilitate visualization. b) Uncertainty in the marginal effects of temperature change on the turnover rate, calculated by downsampling each time series of dissimilarities (see Methods). Plot shows the individual downsampled effects (thin green lines), the average across 1000 downsampling trials (yellow line), the 95% confidence interval from downsampling (green shading), and the mean marginal effects from the full dataset with 95% confidence intervals (black line and shading). c) Uncertainty in the marginal effects of average temperature on the sensitivity of turnover rate to temperature change, calculated by downsampling each time series of dissimilarities (see Methods). Plot shows the individual downsampled effects (thin lines), the average across 1000 downsampling trials (thick lines), and the 95% confidence interval from downsampling (vertical error bars) for warming (orange) and cooling (blue). The mean marginal effects from the full dataset with 95% confidence intervals are also shown (black lines and error bars).