Extended Data Table 2 National model fits for AgMIP GGCMs and this study

From: Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation

  1. Column 2 reports AgMIP global gridded crop model (GGCM) ensemble R2 values from ref. 109 (Fig. 2) for country average ensemble fits for the four crops modelled in that study. Columns 3–5 report the corresponding country R2 values from this study, with national aggregations following the approach of ref. 109. Column 3 reports fits from the full statistical model of this study, column 4 drops country–year fixed effects from the model and column 5 drops country–year fixed effects and does not remove the 5-year moving average. All specifications in columns 3–5 include panel unit fixed effects and state/province quadratic trends. Details described in the surrounding text. Note that ref. 109 Fig. 2 reports correlation coefficient ranges; we take the range midpoint and square it to obtain R2 values to describe the fraction of variance in yields predicted by each model. Correlation coefficients in ref. 109 were all weakly positive. All countries with common overlap in both this study and ref. 109 are reported here.
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