Fig. 2: Impact of screening scenarios on cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates.

Reductions in age-standardized cervical cancer incidence (a) and age-standardized cervical cancer mortality (b) compared to no screening, shown as the dots for base case assumptions. The error bars represent the reductions when assuming the best (upper range) and worst (lower range) primary test performance assumptions, as described in Supplementary Table 3. Age-standardization was performed using the 2015 World Female Population for ages 0–99 years. ASCUS, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance; yrly, yearly; yrs, years. *All positive women treated after assessment of eligibility for ablative treatment. **Triage positive referred to colposcopy. ^^VIA triage positive women treated after assessment of eligibility for ablative treatment. ^HPV 16/18 positive women treated after assessment of eligibility for ablative treatment. Women positive for HPV types other than HPV 16/18 (‘OHR’) are triaged with VIA. ^oThe range in sensitivity to CIN2+ is varied as shown in Supplementary Table 3c: for primary HPV, we consider a range of CIN2+ sensitivity of 88% (worst case) to 96% (best case) for primary cytology, we consider a range of CIN2+ sensitivity at the LSIL threshold of 46.8% (worst case) to 80% (best case) and for primary VIA, we consider a range of CIN2+ sensitivity of 30% (worst case) to 60% (best case).