Fig. 3: PROMAD identifies a global indicator of dysfunction in allografts.

a, Heatmap of the top 50 fibrosis-specific genes, with each column representing a dataset and each row a gene. b, Scatter plot of association statistics between native and transplant organ fibrosis. The top 10 genes in each direction, indicating their degree of change between fibrotic and stably functioning grafts, are highlighted. c, Bar plot of pathways enriched for genes that are differentially expressed in transplant organ fibrosis but not in native organ fibrosis. Gene set enrichment was evaluated using a two-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Each bar represents one Gene Ontology pathway where P values were adjusted for multiple comparisons using Benjamini–Hochberg correction. d,e, Pair plots of genes associated with DGF, acute rejection and fibrosis when compared to stable functioning grafts. The points in d are colored according to their appearance in the BHOT NanoString panel (orange), and genes in e are red if they appeared in the data-derived gene set. The top right panels show the correlation (Corr.) of association statistics for each gene. ROC curves compare BHOT (orange) and the data-derived panel (red) in predicting DGF (f), biopsy-proven acute rejection (g) and biopsy-proven fibrosis using the AUSCAD study as an external validation cohort (h). ROC, receiver operating characteristic.