Fig. 2: Two perspectives on land use as a driver of biodiversity loss and disease emergence.

Biodiversity loss and disease emergence often follow land conversion, but different schools of thought offer different insights into the underlying mechanisms. a, In a conceptual model based on ecoimmunology and community ecology^104,105, land conversion sets off a cascade of organismal and community-level changes; over time, this increases the risk of zoonotic spillover. b, In a conceptual model based on landscape ecology and social–ecological systems theory^63,107, spillover risk is shaped by the intensity and type of anthropogenic land use, the habitat requirements of important species in the pathogen life cycle, and the types of interface associated with spillover (for example, wildlife hunting or agriculture). Some variables are usually positively or negatively correlated over space with the degree of anthropogenic disturbance; other gradients might be unique to the ecology of a given landscape and pathogen. Neither model is comprehensive or universal, and both are compatible with other perspectives.