Extended Data Fig. 6: Predicted posterior fraud belief for each scenario across models.

Paralleling the empirical results from Fig. 1c, the model-based predictions of the posterior fraud belief for each participant (N = 828) are presented as a function of the map scenario (hypothetical winner), for each of the four models: (a) The original Bayesian model (note that the plot for the Bayesian model is also the plot for the Hypothesis Desirability model, because fitting the latter to the data yields \(\alpha = 0\)); (b) the Outcome Desirability model; (c) the Fraud-Only model; and (d) the Random Beneficiary model. In all panels, the prior values are based on the empirically obtained prior fraud beliefs from the original survey, only for participants who completed the follow-up survey. Points represent single participants, and error bars represent standard error of the mean across participants.