Fig. 2: Number of additional deaths due to malaria in different regions of SSA and the impact of expanding existing SMC and MDA in a COVID-19 mitigation scenario.

a, Estimated additional deaths per million people when all malaria interventions (LLIN campaigns, SMC and clinical treatment of cases) are halted for 6 months relative to normal service in the absence of COVID-19 for each administrative region (maps for other COVID-19 scenarios are presented in Extended Data Fig. 2). b, Reduction in additional malaria deaths by expanding the age of those eligible for SMC in regions within the Sahel where it was conducted in 2019 relative to all malaria interventions canceled (Table 2, row 11: red bars) or LLIN distributions continue while clinical treatment ceases (Table 2, row 8: blue bars). Absolute values are shown in Supplementary Table 7. c, Reduction in additional malaria deaths by introducing a single round of MDA (using the prophylactic with a similar profile to amodiaquine + sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine) for regions where SMC is not currently conducted (see Supplementary Table 9). MDA is assumed to be implemented at the optimal time, before the transmission peak for each administration unit. In both SMC and MDA scenarios, we assume that 70% of the respective populations receive the intervention. Negative values indicate that there are fewer malaria deaths than would have been predicted if routine antimalarial interventions had been maintained without a COVID-19 epidemic. The map was prepared using GADM v.3.6 (https://gadm.org/).