Table 2 Projected COVID-19 and additional malaria deaths between 1 May 2020 and 30 April 2021 for different COVID-19 scenarios in malaria-endemic countries in SSA

				COVID-19 scenario
				Unmitigated	Mitigation	Suppression	Suppression lift
Projected COVID-19 deaths (thousands (95% UI))				7,364 (3,215–14,051)	5,923 (2,892–11,028)	0.4 (0.3–4.5)	7,374 (3,224–14,024)
Malaria scenario				Additional malaria deaths (thousands) (95% UI) (compared with a baseline estimate of 422 (95% UI = 225–619) thousand deaths in this period without malaria service interruption)
No.	LLINs	SMC	Treatment
1	Interrupted	Interrupted	Reduced	239 (141–337)	379 (221–537)	464 (278–651)	380 (222–539)
2	Interrupted	Interrupted	Normal	221 (131–312)	282 (167–397)	322 (195–450)	282 (167–397)
3	Normal	Reduced	Reduced	26 (15–38)	112 (61–163)	200 (115–285)	112 (61–164)
4	Normal	Reduced	Interrupted	39 (22–57)	184 (98–270)	314 (175–453)	186 (99–273)
5	Normal	Interrupted	Reduced	41 (23–58)	129 (71–187)	189 (107–270)	130 (71–188)
6	Interrupted	Reduced	Reduced	220 (128–311)	357 (207–507)	495 (296–693)	358 (208–509)
7	Normal	Normal	Interrupted	25 (13–37)	164 (87–241)	310 (174–446)	165 (88–243)
8	Normal	Interrupted	Interrupted	55 (30–79)	205 (110–300)	336 (189–484)	207 (111–302)
9	Interrupted	Reduced	Interrupted	238 (139–337)	461 (263–659)	696 (413–979)	464 (265–662)
10	Interrupted	Normal	Interrupted	219 (127–311)	434 (247–622)	668 (397–940)	437 (249–625)
11	Interrupted	Interrupted	Interrupted	253 (149–357)	481 (277–686)	696 (413–978)	484 (278–690)

Different combinations of malaria interventions are considered on each row, with the color denoting whether they were halted for the period of health system interruption (‘Interrupted’), reduced to 50% of the normal coverage level (‘Reduced’) or continued as normal (‘Normal’). LLINs, distribution of LLINs in countries due for mass campaigns in 2020; SMC, SMC in SMC target areas in the Sahel region; Treatment, treatment of clinical cases. LLIN and SMC campaigns are disrupted only in regions where they were previously planned. Malaria scenario numbers correspond to those plotted in Extended Data Figs. 1 and 2. The point estimate of deaths due to COVID-19 is from the assumption of an R₀ of 3.0, with ranges in brackets showing 95% UIs. Additional malaria deaths are shown as the point estimate and 95% UIs rounded to the nearest thousand.

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